Metal prices fell across the board, with SHFE nickel and SHFE zinc leading the declines. Coking coal fell by 1.59%, while polysilicon rose by nearly 1% [SMM midday review]

SMM News on July 7:

Metal Markets:

As of midday close, domestic base metals collectively declined, with SHFE copper down 0.87%, SHFE nickel down 1.31%, SHFE aluminum down 0.9%, SHFE lead and SHFE zinc down 0.46% and 1.12% respectively, and SHFE tin down 0.88%.

Additionally, the most-traded aluminum casting futures fell 0.83% while alumina futures rose 0.63%. Lithium carbonate dropped 0.38%, silicon metal fell 0.19%, and polysilicon gained 0.97%.

The ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore down 0.61%, rebar down 0.62%, HRC down 0.75%, and stainless steel down 0.59%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal down 1.59%, coke down 1.57%.

Overseas metals: As of 11:43, LME metals uniformly declined, with LME copper down 0.46%, LME aluminum down 0.64%, LME nickel down 0.59%, LME zinc down 0.46%, LME tin down 0.42%, and LME lead down 0.46%.

Precious metals: As of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.67%, COMEX silver dropped 0.28%; domestically, SHFE gold declined 0.47%, and SHFE silver fell 0.02%.

As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.91% to 1,875 points.

Partial futures midday quotes as of 11:43 on July 7:

》July 7 SMM Metal Spot PricesZ11/>Spot & Fundamentals

Copper: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 5 yuan/mt - down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at discounts of 120-100 yuan/mt, averaging 110 yuan/mt discount - down 50 yuan/mt from the prior session. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,805 yuan/mt (-745 yuan/mt), while SX-EW copper averaged 79,700 yuan/mt (-765 yuan/mt). Spot market: Guangdong inventories have risen for six consecutive days, primarily due to increased arrivals. Despite copper prices pulling back... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic:

[China's Raw Coal Output Reaches 1.99 Billion Tons in First Five Months, Securing Summer Energy Supply] Latest data from the China National Coal Association shows nationwide raw coal production totaled 1.99 billion tons in the first five months, providing strong support for summer energy supply. May's raw coal output from enterprises above designated size reached 400 million tons, up 4.2% YoY, with daily average production hitting 13.01 million tons - a record high for the same period and up 0.2% MoM from April. The China National Coal Association stated that with the continued release of advanced capacity in provinces (regions) such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, it is expected that domestic coal production will increase by about 5% for the whole year. Analyzing the coal consumption trends of major coal-consuming industries throughout the year, it is projected that power coal consumption will maintain moderate growth this year, while coal consumption in the steel industry and building materials industry will decline slightly but remain stable. Coal consumption in the chemical industry will still increase moderately. It is expected that coal consumption demand will grow by about 1.5% for the whole year.

The People's Bank of China conducted reverse repo operations worth 106.5 billion yuan for 7 days today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 331.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan was achieved.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on July 7 was 7.1506 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose by 0.08% to 97.07. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that before the US is set to impose higher tariffs starting on July 9, the country is close to finalizing multiple trade agreements, and expects to make several major announcements in the coming days. Trump announced in April a basic tariff of 10% on most countries, with additional tariffs of up to 50%. Later, he postponed the effective date of all tariffs except the 10% from July 9. The new date provides a three-week buffer period for most affected countries.

Other currencies:

The latest data released by the Japanese government reveals a worrying reality: in May this year, Japan's real wages recorded the largest decline in nearly two years, with inflation remaining high and far exceeding wage growth. This not only dealt a heavy blow to the purchasing power of Japanese households but also cast a shadow over the prospects for Japan's economic recovery. (Huitong Finance)

Data:

Today, data such as Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production monthly rate for May, Germany's working-day adjusted industrial production annual rate for May, China's foreign exchange reserves for June, the Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in July, the Eurozone's retail sales monthly rate for May, the Eurozone's retail sales annual rate for May, the leading indicator for the turning point of the global industrial production cycle in June, and the global supply chain pressure index for June will be released.

Crude oil:

Both oil futures fell. As of 11:43, US oil fell by 1.37%, and Brent oil fell by 0.66%. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as the OPEC+ alliance, surprised the market with an August production increase that exceeded expectations, sparking concerns about a supply surplus and putting pressure on oil prices.

OPEC oil-producing countries agreed on Saturday to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, further accelerating the pace of production increases. On July 5 local time, a virtual meeting was held by some members of the "OPEC+" alliance comprising the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries. Delegates from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman attending the meeting decided to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels starting in August. According to the arrangement, as of August, OPEC+ will have cumulatively raised output to 1.918 million barrels per day since April this year, leaving only 280,000 barrels per day to fully phase out the production cut agreement targeting a 2.2 million barrels per day reduction. Additionally, the UAE will be permitted to raise output by an extra 300,000 barrels per day. Market observers generally believe that some members previously exceeded production quotas, sparking discontent among compliant countries, which became a key driver for this unified production increase. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►Copper price decline fails to hinder premium reductions - Mainly due to downstream reluctance to restock [SMM South China Copper Spot]

►Limited boost from copper price pullback as spot premiums/discounts weaken [SMM North China Copper Spot]

►Shanghai Zinc: Improved transactions as downstream buyers seek lows [SMM Midday Review]

►Ningbo Zinc: Traders actively quote with stable premium changes [SMM Midday Review]

Other metal spot midday reviews to be updated shortly - please refresh for details~